news and musings exploring the intersection of technology and business trends... from collaboration tools, distributed development, and virtual teams, online communities, social networking -- to innovation, IT strategy, the future of work in the Knowledge Economy (and beyond).
I haven't been posting on this blog for a while now, for various reasons, not the least of which is that time has gotten extremely precious since going back to school for my PhD. I'm still enamored by collaboration tools, however, and this summer I took the plunge to try to decipher what all the fuss about Twitter was about. I'm hooked! It's much more social and collaborative than blogging and fits my ridiculously tight schedule.
You are hereby invited to follow me at http://twitter.com/danadolan . If I need more room to ramble than a 140-character tweet allows, I may post here again, but for the most part I suspect my longer composition time will be spent writing research papers.
In the continuing aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, individuals are adapting in unexpected ways:
"For many coastal residents, the RVs [recreational vehicles] represent a temporary fix to their housing problems while they work on rebuilding. For others the vehicles offer a permanent solution to the threat of hurricanes: Rather than invest in another house that could be washed away, residents can simply drive their homes to higher ground when needed."
Concerns raised include potential gridlock in the face of storm evacutions, greater vulnerability in strong wind storms, and declines in an area's image and property values.
In the 1970's, scientists suspected that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) contributed to the destruction of the ozone layer. Governments signed the Montreal Protocol in 1987. The worldwide ban on these chemicals was successful in large part due to the availability of a replacement chemical, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Now it seems we need a replacement for the replacement.
The problem is that HFCs act like "super" greenhouse gases, and according to the EPA they already account for about 2 percent of the climate-warming power of U.S. emissions.
"Pound for pound, they're much more powerful than CO2, you know -- hundreds or thousands of times more powerful," said NOAA physicist [David] Fahey.
Exactly how powerful depends on the makeup of the gases. One, common in fridges and auto air conditioners, lasts 12 to 14 years in the atmosphere and has 1,430 times the global warming impact of carbon dioxide. Another has a 52-year life and 4,470 times the power
Rising sea levels, one of the consequences of global warming, are a threat around the world, but the eastern coast of the U.S. may get much more than its share of this particular problem, according to scientific models (East Coast May Feel Rise in Sea Levels the Most, David A. Fahrenthold, Washington Post, June 8, 2009).
East coast governors from New York to Virginia pledged to identify places and facilities most vulnerable to high water, including port areas, parts of the power grid and other infrastructure - as part of an agreement on Atlantic Ocean issues. As policy makers make plans to adapt by protecting critical infrastructures, simple economics indicates that cities will enjoy a level of protection, while rural areas may be abandoned.
What can social networking and new media folks learn from bees, ants, cockroaches, and fish? Quite a lot, it seems. Tom Seeley, a behavioral biologist from Cornell University, gives us a fascinating view in his latest research, summarized in Swarm Saavy, a May 9th, 2009 article for ScienceNews by Susan Milius.
Honeybee scouts have distinct processes for choosing new nesting sites, recruiting other scouts to confirm promising opportunities. Bee scouts work independently, report freely, and argue their points with each other before coming to a quorum. Balancing interdependence and independence leads to the best solutions. Too much independence, and they take too long reaching consensus. Too much interdependence, on the other hand, leads to copying behaviors and poor choices. But the group decision isn't entirely left to the scouts to decide. Our elite researchers motivate the swarm to make a site visit, where they continue to advocate for their choice. Consider the human parallels in the technology adoption world: venture capitalists are the scouts, promising new technologies are the nesting sites, and potential customers are the swarm to be motivated to change from their old site/technology to something new.
Seeley's research and others on group decision making have been collected in the March 27, 2009 special issue of Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B.
"Strengthening STEM education at every level, from precollege to postgraduate to lifelong learning" is one of four "cross-cutting foundations of success" for John Holdren, new science advisor to the President. It's nice to see a one-sentence encapsulation of STEM education that emphasizes learning throughout a person's life. Improvements at the K-12 level are necessary, but not sufficient, for innovation and competitiveness.
“So I want to persuade you to spend time in the classroom, talking and showing young people what it is that your work can mean, and what it means to you. I want to encourage you to participate in programs to allow students to get a degree in science fields and a teaching certificate at the same time. I want us all to think about new and creative ways to engage young people in science and engineering, whether it's science festivals, robotics competitions, fairs that encourage young people to create and build and invent -- to be makers of things, not just consumers of things,” Obama said in a speech yesterday at the National Academy of Sciences.
But do young people actually need to be encouraged to "be makers of things, not just consumers of things"? On the web, young people are leading the way in creating content, and that increased time is coming at the expense of passive consumption such as television watching. It's not a new phenomenon, either. Pew Research reported on Teen Content Creators in 2007, even finding that girls dominated in content creation. The trend isn't just continuing, either, it's accelerating as the ranks of "digital natives: grow and grow up.
Look closer, and you'll see that Obama isn't actually encouraging young people to do anything differently, he's encouraging old people (that's the "you" he's speaking to!) to get in step with today's reality. It certainly isn't the first time that kids taught adults how to use technology, and no doubt it won't be the last.
I apparently can't rely on the EPA estimates for MPG when we start looking at hybrids and especially at plug-ins. Basically no one knows how to measure if we're really making an earth-friendly choice when we're comparing close options like Toyota's Prius hybrid vs. Toyota's Yaris conventional high-mileage compact car (it's not a random comparison, I'm actually debating between the two!). No debate that a Prius vs. a full size SUV is an easy choice.
This article makes me uneasy... the quote I pulled out below is from Matt Mattila, "a consultant for the Rocky Mountain Institute's Project Get Ready, which helps cities prepare to adopt electric vehicle technologies," who suggests we should let the autmakers be our source of information. Without scientific confidence in EPA's estimates, I guess that is what is happening now! The problem, extended to all the new green technologies that could be coming out, could lead to FUD (Fear Uncertainty Doubt, a tactic perfected by Microsoft) and inaction on the part of consumers.
"Mattila said that it is up to the automakers to educate consumers that the plug-in hybrid will not be the right option for everyone, and that whether it is right for them would depend on their driving patterns.
"The car companies are blunter: "The real question is, can we get anyone to buy it?" asked Stricker. If the fuel saved with a plug-in hybrid compared to a conventional hybrid doesn't outweigh the added cost -- and with the price of batteries, that added cost is significant -- then no one will buy the car."
"The idea of mixing collaboration and evaluation is new, and so far, few organizations support it, Rasmussen said. " has to be an editorial misunderstanding between Chris Rasmussen, knowledge manager at the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency, and the article author at Federal Computer Week (Official: Federal Web 2.0 tools should evolve, by Doug Beizer, Mar. 11, 2009. ). Obviously, evaluation to date has not been handled by some solitary individual sitting alone and thinking to himself.
Collaboration is and always has been a critical element in complex decision making, there's nothing new there. The article goes on to explain the "new" aspects of adopting web-based collaboration tools:
“The process that I’m talking about will require a massive executive push because we’re talking about turning certain systems off,” he said. “We’re talking about realigning reward structures. We’re talking about all sorts of things that the grassroots just can’t do. You need a massive organizational commitment to move to that level.”
Agreed, the effort and commitment need for organizational change will be large. But organizational change like this is far from new.
How can the IPCC best convince the public that their views on global warming are right? David Shukman from BBC News asked the co-Chairs of the IPCC's Working Group II in April 2007. The answers are intriguing, although I don't agree with the conclusions entirely.
Martin Parry believes the IPCC's statements are probably understated, and that the public is actually ahead of the science. The public and the press may be too far ahead of the science, ready to take action when we don't yet know what actions should be taken. Osvaldo Canziani gives a few examples of global warming that he believes are readily observable: European chesnuts blooming earlier, antarctic penguins are not reproducing, mosquitos are now in Siberia, and something I couldn't catch happening in Patagonia. Mr. Canziani refers to Al Gore's movie as presenting these facts well. Mr. Parry steps in again after pondering the question further, and tells the reporter himself is part of the answer, as part of "an experienced corps of science correspondents and environment correspondents". The key is "communication through knowledgeable media to the public that is making the difference now."
If the IPCC understates the science, as Mr. Parry indicates, then that watered down info gets filtered through traditional media, then the part of the public with access to TV, radio, and newspapers might get a pale shadow of the real information, we're not doing a very good job communicating. Making sure that traditional media correspondents are educated in science and environmental issues is a good thing, to be sure, but there are more sticking points in approaching this complex public education problem. And there's more to worry about, with yet another news report just today reinforcing Mr. Parry's message that the IPCC underestimates the science.
What message can the IPCC send out now? People should conserve and learn as much as they can, while encouraging governments around the world to put this issue high on their agendas.
Watch the presentation on YouTube (starting at the 2:50 mark, untill 6:00)
How much of what you've learned in life was taught to you in a formal school environment? Everything else falls under the heading of "Informal Education." Boosting our understanding of informal education is increasingly important both as people live longer (meaning a smaller percentage of their time is spent in formal education settings) and as the pace of change accelerates (meaning that what we do learn becomes out of date faster). These two facts are reflected in the watershed report, "Rising Above the Gathering Storm", and passage by Congress of the America COMPETES Act, both of which emphasize the need for a greater emphasis on science and technology skills. A new research report from the National Academies focused on "Learning Science in Informal Environments" provides a rich source of information for addressing this education crisis.
But don't cheer too soon. Congress, despite last year's COMPETES Act, isn't on board yet. AAAS analysis of the Stimulus Bill, which lumps zoos and aquariums along with "casino or other gambling establishments," golf courses, and swimming pools, all of which are banned from receiving funds. Jeffrey Mervis's article draws the conclusion:
Museum officials say the language is a clear sign that politicians don't fully understand how museums serve the U.S. economy and society as a whole. "Last year, museums attracted 850 million visitors," says Ford Bell, president of the American Association of Museums in Washington, D.C. "That's more than the attendance at all professional sporting events in the country, and it tells you about our role in educating the public and boosting tourism. But if you ask most members of Congress, they'll say museums are nice but not essential."
Are museums "nice, but not essential", based on the goals of the America COMPETES Act?
One of the research areas I'm interested in is science education - and the rest of the STEM fields (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math). Here's what Bruce Alberts, the editor-in-chief of Science magazine, has to say about it last Spring on the Charlie Rose show (April 7, 2008)
But don't stop there, Lisa Randall makes a critical point - we have to make science more accessible to non-scientists:
What an amazing day it has been so far. Barack Obama is now officially our 44th President, and despite my earlier plan to stay party-neutral during this tremendously long campaign and transition (at least publicly), I have to say how incredibly happy I feel about this day, and about the future. Beyond just the events of the day, it's the symbolism that touches me personally and as a member of various overlapping and increasingly more inclusive groups: as an American, as a woman, as a mother, as an edge-of-Gen-Xer, as a member of the human race, and as an environmentalist I know I am just one creature of the universe we all share.
Change has come to the White House is the title of the very first blog post from President Obama's White House. Posted at 12:01 Eastern Standard Time today, it restates Barack's commitment to transparancy and inclusiveness through the use of new media. It's not just nice words, either, it's clear action towards the stated ends. It's beyond eGov, towards what I called cGov a while back.
In President Obama's first official act, he declared today a National Day of Renewal and Reconciliation, to "call upon all of our citizens to serve one another and the common purpose of remaking this Nation for our new century." President Obama, sign me up!
Oh, right, I already signed myself up. I hope you'll join in, too. Check the top right corner of any of the www.whitehouse.gov pages linked in this post to submit your email and zip code and "get updates".
President Bush will be leaving a surprising legacy as a marine conservationist.
"Invoking powers of the Antiquities Act of 1906 that are used to protect statues and cultural sites, Bush will sharply restrict oil and gas exploration and commercial fishing around numerous remote islands in the central and western Pacific that have long been U.S. possessions. Scientists identified them as biologically and geologically rich areas. The monuments, which together are equal in size to Spain, include regions teeming with sharks and other top marine predators, along with vibrant coral and hydrothermal vents. "
BearingPoint has collected a surprisingly large number of government agencies, officials, and watchers that are using Twitter, a Web 2.0 service, to communicate directly to the public. See their list at http://newthinking.bearingpoint.com/2008/11/20/govtwit-directory/
"The Chesapeake Bay Foundation says it will formally notify the Environmental Protection Agency today that it intends to sue the agency for not living up to the latest in a series of bay restoration agreements. The pact calls for cleaning up the bay by 2010, a deadline the EPA acknowledges is unlikely to be met." writes Timothy B. Wheeler (October 29, 2008, Washington Post).
Patrick Lynch (Oct. 30, 2008, Newport News, Va., Daily Press) explains that CBF is part of a "coalition of watermen, fishermen and former government folks" which points out an interesting twist. Finally, the fishing industry and environmentalists have found common ground to work together towards a solution. Let's hope they can keep their common ground footings through the stormy seas to come.
State and Federal Electronic Government in the United States, 2008 (Brookings Institution, 2008) concludes that "Although considerable progress has been made over the past decade, e-government has fallen short of its potential to transform public-sector operations".
Brookings reviewed 61 Federal government web sites and 1,476 state government web sites, ranking them based on their effectiveness at using interactive features to engage the public and provide services. USA.gov came out on top for the Federal sites, with the Federal Election Commission ranking at the bottom of the list. For state websites, Delaware ranked high on the state list, while Mississippi ranked the lowest.
